During the next Fed meeting, there is a very good chance that the Fed will raise interest rates. This will be a huge surprise for the economy as many people are expecting the Fed to cut the rate by the end of the year. It will also be a big surprise to the market as it will cause a lot of volatility in the market. Almost all market observers agree that the Fed will hike rates by 0.75% in November. But the size of the increase will depend on the inflation outlook. Currently, the expected range is 2.25%-3.00%.
The recent inversion of the US Treasury yield curve suggests that the Fed may slow down its rate hikes. The two-year/10-year Treasury yield curve has been inverted since July. However, the near-term forward spread, which is the difference between the yield on a three-month Treasury bill and the expected yield on a three-month Treasury bill in 18 months’ time, has not yet inverted. The Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75% to 4%. The rate has been raised by 75 basis points in the last four meetings. The economy may have added net 200K jobs in October. That should push the unemployment rate to 3.6%. But the housing market is cooling, which could indicate that demand is beginning to slow down in the U.S.
Inflation should remain around 4.4%. But wage growth has flattened, which could ease inflationary pressures. Several factors have been cited as possible causes for the slowdown, including the fact that the Fed has been tightening rates at a faster pace than previously agreed upon. But the Fed also noted that it was too soon to think about stopping rate increases. Traders can predict interest rate changes by analyzing the forecasts of major central banks. Major announcements from the boards and leaders of the central banks can reveal important insights into their actions.
In recent months, the World Bank has slashed its global growth forecasts and has warned of a recession. The next fed meeting has been raising interest rates aggressively. Analysts believe the dollar is in a cyclical decline against most G10 currencies and a number of emerging currencies. Mexico and Taiwan are also set to see higher borrowing costs. The Bank of England is expected to raise its benchmark rate by 50 bp next week. Several analysts predict the Fed will cut its rate by the end of the year. This could result in a significant currency devaluation.
The European Central Bank is among the central banks seeking to curb record inflation. Its forecast for the core producer-price index for the next year was slightly lower than expectations. The underlying rate excludes volatile energy and trade prices. The Bank of England’s current forecasts indicate that inflation will peak in early 2020 and will then fall to a level of 1.5% in 2024. This is much lower than the ECB’s projection. The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the rate by 75 bp in June was widely expected. The market expects the Fed to raise its rate by another 50 bp at its December meeting. During the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, the markets suffered a rough ride. As central banks converged to put the economy on a path of economic growth, volatility soared. In particular, the VIX, or Wall Street’s “fear index,” rose and fell.
The Federal Reserve, in its latest decision, raised the benchmark federal funds rate by 0.75 percentage points. This marks the third time the Fed has raised interest rates in four months. The market expects the rate will rise another 75 basis points in September. It also plans to update its forecasts for the next three years. As the Fed raises rates, the US dollar is strengthening. That’s a warning sign. In addition, investors worry about the longer-term impact of tighter monetary policy. During the intermeeting period, Treasury yields spiked. Core fixed-income markets were also affected. For example, spreads of agency mortgage-backed securities over Treasury securities widened sharply. In addition, corporate bond yields increased notably.
Stock prices also experienced volatility during the period. Equity prices declined early in the period, before rebounding and ending the period unchanged. The VIX rose from the mid-20s to over 30 points. This was the first time the indicator has been in the top ten for the month. It has remained in this range since mid-2020.
